China’s economic growth rate slumped to a three decade low in 2023 (5.2 percent). The International Monetary Fund expects China’s economy to slow to 4.5 percent in 2025, and decelerate further to 3.3 percent by 2029. The projections are grounded in China’s structural weaknesses, including demographics, debt, drought and decoupling.

China’s real estate market plunge, steep local government debt, and deflationary pressure continue to weigh heavily on its economy. To engineer an economic turnaround, Beijing is doubling-down on investments in industrial overcapacity and flooding global markets with low-priced high-tech exports. China’s excessive investments will not be a small wave, but rather a $450 billion tsunami over the next three years.